“Agitprop”, the Influential New Old Generation of “SoothSayers” – 06/19/2014

“The main theme is how the American administrations of the next ten years will need to create regional power balances, some of which have been disturbed. Friedman conceptualizes America’s successful management of world affairs not by directly enforcing countries, but by creating competing relationships, which offset one another, in the world’s different regions. For example, in the past, Iraq balanced Iran, and currently Japan balances China. Friedman asserts this is the decade where the US as a power must mature to manage its power and balance as an unintended empire and republic.”

“In the mid-21st century, around the year 2050, a Third World War will take place, between the United States, the “Polish Bloc,” Britain, India, and China on one side, and Turkey and Japan on the other. Germany and France will enter the war in its late stages on the side of Turkey and Japan. According to the book, the war will probably be started by a coordinated Turkish-Japanese sneak attack against the United States and its allies. In the book, Friedman hypothesizes the attack will place on November 24, 2050, at 5:00 p.m, duringThanksgiving Day.

“The Turkish-Japanese alliance’s initial strike will cripple the military capabilities of the United States and its allies. The Turkish-Japanese alliance will then attempt to enter negotiations, demanding the United States accept the Turkish-Japanese’s alliance’s status as a fellow Superpower. However, the United States will probably react viscerally and emotionally to the attack, and will not accept Turkish and Japanese hegemony over Eurasia. It will therefore decide to go to war. The Turkish-Japanese alliance will initially possess a military advantage after crippling the United States’ military during its first strike. However, as the war progresses, the balance of power will begin to shift as the United States rebuilds and increases its military capabilities, and pioneers the use of new military technologies. The war will ultimately end with a victory by the United States and its allies.”

“The primary weapons of the war will be long-range hypersonic aircraft and infantrymen with highly sophisticated, powered body-armorControl of space will be crucial over the course of the conflict, with space-based weapons systems and military bases on the Moon playing a significant role. The war will last about two or three years. According to Friedman, the war will be a limited war, very different in its conduct than a total war, such as World War II of the 20th century. Friedman asserts that this will be due to the fact that all major powers involved in the conflict will possess nuclear weaponry, and that use of Precision Guided Munitions will minimize collateral damage. Friedman estimates that the war will cost somewhere around 50,000 lives.”

“Following the war, the United States will enjoy a new post-war boom that will begin in the 2050s following the war and last throughout the 2060s. The economic boom will come as a result of increased defense expenditures that lead to the development of new technologies, which will foster dramatic economic growth and increase American influence worldwide. In addition, the economic problems imposed by mass retirement of the baby boomers will fade away as the last of the boomers die.”

“The United States will continue to be militarily and politically dominant over the world, and will also cement its hegemony over space. In particular, it will work to keep other powers from developing military capabilities in space. Meanwhile, Turkey will retain the bulk of its sphere of influence, although its de facto empire will become increasingly restive as a result of defeat, while Japan will lose its own sphere of influence. Under the US-dictated treaty that will end World War III, military restrictions will be imposed on both Japan and Turkey, although in practice they will be unenforceable and “merely a gratuitous humiliation victors enjoy imposing on the vanquished”.”

“Meanwhile, Poland’s power will grow due to the expanded size of the Polish Bloc as a result of the war. Although its infrastructure and economy will have been shattered and its casualties in the tens of thousands as a result of having been directly invaded during the war, Poland will exploit the Polish Bloc’s increased sphere of influence to rebuild its economy. The United States will begin to look at the Polish Bloc’s growing strength as a potential future threat. To prevent Polish hegemony in Europe, the United States will ally with its former enemy Turkey, encourage Britain to increase its economic and political influence in Europe, and prevent Poland from making use of space for military purposes.”

North America will remain the center of gravity for the global economic and political system for at least a few more centuries following the 21st century. However, this does not guarantee that the United States will always dominate North America. In the decades following the war, starting in the 2070s, tensions between Mexico and the United States will rise. By this time, after decades of massive immigration, many parts of the United States, especially the South West, will become predominantly ethnically, culturally, and socially Mexican. During this period, many ethnic Mexicans living in the Southwestern United States, especially those living in the Mexican Cession, will increasingly shun assimilation into American culture, due to the fact that they will live in a predominantly Mexican region, as well as the close proximity of Mexico. These demographic changes will be irreversible. Most Mexicans in the US Southwest will identify as Mexicans rather than Americans, and their national loyalty will be to Mexico and not the United States. During this period, Mexico will experience substantial economic and population growth. By the end of the 21st century, Mexico will be in a position to militarily and geopolitically challenge the United States for dominance of North America. In addition to an insurgency by Mexican separatists, political, cultural, and military tensions between the United States and Mexico will rise, and generate into a full-blown confrontation.”

“An extended crisis between the United States and Mexico will ensue, one that the United States will be unable to resolve through the use of military force. Most of the world, wary of American dominance, will secretly hope for a Mexican victory, especially Poland and Brazil, but no other nation will directly interfere. Friedman’s final prediction is that the conflict will continue into the 22nd century.”

“Igor Nikolaevich Panarin (born 30 October 1958) is a Russian professor and political scientist. He is best known for his hypothesis of possible disintegration of the USA into six parts in 2010, conceived by him as early as 1998 but only gaining world attention ten years later.

“Igor Panarin has written 15 books and a number of articles on information warfarepsychology, andgeopolitics. He is often interviewed by Russian and foreign (Wall Street JournalFinancial TimesCNNBBC,Sky News) media on issues of Russian policy, development of relationships with the USA, etc. Panarin also has his own weekly radio programme.

“He has led electoral campaigns in Russia and abroad, and his students have included parliamentary deputies, regional leaders, Kremlin officials, and Foreign Ministry spokespeople. His interests include history, philosophy, psychology, computer science, communication, election technology, conceptual problems of globalisation, and the theory and practice of information warfare.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Next_Decade_(book)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Next_100_Years
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Friedman
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STRATFOR
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Panarin
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fortune-telling
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divination
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oracle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agitprop

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